Monday, March 30, 2020

Flu killed 7% of those hospitalized last season

But Covid-19 is far more deadly, experts believe

The percentage of U.S. patients killed by flu versus those hospitalized during the last influenza season was a sobering 7%, according to figures provided by the Centers for Disease Control. Because in a few cases people may have died of flu without reaching a hospital, that figure is inexact, though not misleading.

The number of people who contracted influenza was put at 35.5 million, though comparing that with projected Covid-19 numbers is a dicey proposition.

A CDC web page says:
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1). The number of influenza-associated illnesses that occurred last season was similar to the estimated number of influenza-associated illnesses during the 2012–2013 influenza season when an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness.
There are no figures available online that give the total number of U.S. hospital admissions for Covid-19 that would reveal a deaths/admissions rate.

A basic issue however is the stealth technique used by the Covid-19 virus to quietly infect a population and then to suddenly overwhelm hospitals -- a situation which tends to push up the mortality rate as medics strain to keep up.

The flu death toll contrasts with between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in a best-case scenario, or 2.2 million in a worst-case scenario.

Dr. Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus response coordinator, said today that she is "very worried about every city in the United States," adding,  "I think everyone understands now that you can go from five to 50 to 500 to 5000 cases very quickly."

Birx said, "I think in some of the metro areas we were late in getting people to follow the 15-day guidelines."

Birx said the projections by Dr. Anthony Fauci that U.S. deaths could range from 1.6 million to 2.2 million deaths is a worst-case scenario if the country did "nothing" to contain the outbreak, but said even "if we do things almost perfectly," she still predicts up to 200,000 U.S. deaths.

Fauci had said that Covid-19 was about ten times as lethal as flu. The ratio of flu deaths over Fauci's lower estimate shows that Covid-19 is about 12 times more lethal than flu. His higher number would make Covid-19 17 times more lethal than flu, though flu's mortality is held down by widespread use of yearly vaccines. At present, no vaccine exists for Covid-19.

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