As of today, the number of Covid-19 deaths in New York State is reported at about 2,000, with the total number of Covid-19 hospitalizations there put at about 15,000.
Although in a few cases people may have died of the virus without reaching a hospital, the difference is not enough to affect the ratio.
This puts the mortality rate for Covid-19 patients admitted to New York hospitals at 13.3%, which may be compared with a national mortality rate of 6.9% for hospitalized flu patients last season.
These figures show that Covid-19 is more lethal than flu, but the question to be asked is whether it is so much worse than the flu rate as to justify drastic shelter-in-place orders. But, the rate of admission for Covid-19 tends to surge suddenly, overwhelming care-givers and punching up the mortality rate as some patients are left untreated.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has reported a decrease in the use of ventilators and an increase in the number of discharges.
I was unable to locate figures for the number of Covid-19 hospitalizations nationally.
The number of people who contracted influenza last season was put at 35.5 million, though comparing that with projected Covid-19 numbers is a dicey proposition.
A CDC web page says:
A basic issue however is the stealth technique used by the Covid-19 virus to quietly infect a population and then to suddenly overwhelm hospitals -- a situation which tends to push up the mortality rate as medics strain to keep up.
The flu death toll contrasts with between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in a best-case scenario, or 2.2 million in a worst-case scenario.
Dr. Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus response coordinator, has said that she is "very worried about every city in the United States," adding, "I think everyone understands now that you can go from five to 50 to 500 to 5000 cases very quickly."
Birx said, "I think in some of the metro areas we were late in getting people to follow the 15-day guidelines."
Birx said the projections by Dr. Anthony Fauci that U.S. deaths could range from 1.6 million to 2.2 million deaths is a worst-case scenario if the country did "nothing" to contain the outbreak, but said even "if we do things almost perfectly," she still predicts up to 200,000 U.S. deaths.
Although in a few cases people may have died of the virus without reaching a hospital, the difference is not enough to affect the ratio.
This puts the mortality rate for Covid-19 patients admitted to New York hospitals at 13.3%, which may be compared with a national mortality rate of 6.9% for hospitalized flu patients last season.
These figures show that Covid-19 is more lethal than flu, but the question to be asked is whether it is so much worse than the flu rate as to justify drastic shelter-in-place orders. But, the rate of admission for Covid-19 tends to surge suddenly, overwhelming care-givers and punching up the mortality rate as some patients are left untreated.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has reported a decrease in the use of ventilators and an increase in the number of discharges.
I was unable to locate figures for the number of Covid-19 hospitalizations nationally.
The number of people who contracted influenza last season was put at 35.5 million, though comparing that with projected Covid-19 numbers is a dicey proposition.
A CDC web page says:
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza (Table 1). The number of influenza-associated illnesses that occurred last season was similar to the estimated number of influenza-associated illnesses during the 2012–2013 influenza season when an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness.There are no figures available online that give the total number of U.S. hospital admissions for Covid-19 that would reveal a deaths/admissions rate.
A basic issue however is the stealth technique used by the Covid-19 virus to quietly infect a population and then to suddenly overwhelm hospitals -- a situation which tends to push up the mortality rate as medics strain to keep up.
The flu death toll contrasts with between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in a best-case scenario, or 2.2 million in a worst-case scenario.
Dr. Deborah Birx, White House coronavirus response coordinator, has said that she is "very worried about every city in the United States," adding, "I think everyone understands now that you can go from five to 50 to 500 to 5000 cases very quickly."
Birx said, "I think in some of the metro areas we were late in getting people to follow the 15-day guidelines."
Birx said the projections by Dr. Anthony Fauci that U.S. deaths could range from 1.6 million to 2.2 million deaths is a worst-case scenario if the country did "nothing" to contain the outbreak, but said even "if we do things almost perfectly," she still predicts up to 200,000 U.S. deaths.
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