Many people, including some mayors and governors, are overlooking something. The purpose of "flattening the curve" is not to reduce the number of infections.
As you know if you took calculus, the area under the flattened curve is presumably about the same as under a narrow, tall curve. The purpose of flattening the curve is to make sure that hospitals aren't swamped all at once to the point they have to push patients aside to die untreated.
We actually NEED 40 percent of the population to become infected so as to build up herd immunity, i.e., chances of the virus moving far is blocked by so many potential hosts already immunized.
We just can't handle that percentage happening in one big tsunami. So the longer we push back the inevitable by flattening the curve too much, the more we will still have to pay the piper down the road -- because herd immunity won't have been built up.
Last month New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo worried whether massive quarantine was such a good idea.
Cuomo worries about massive lockdown
https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/cuomo-admits-that-quarantine-may-have-backfired-in-some-cases/
N.Y. Times: Preventive medicine expert backs 'targeted' approach
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html
PBS: Medical risk vs. economic pain
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/2-views-on-balancing-medical-risk-and-economic-pain
As you know if you took calculus, the area under the flattened curve is presumably about the same as under a narrow, tall curve. The purpose of flattening the curve is to make sure that hospitals aren't swamped all at once to the point they have to push patients aside to die untreated.
We actually NEED 40 percent of the population to become infected so as to build up herd immunity, i.e., chances of the virus moving far is blocked by so many potential hosts already immunized.
We just can't handle that percentage happening in one big tsunami. So the longer we push back the inevitable by flattening the curve too much, the more we will still have to pay the piper down the road -- because herd immunity won't have been built up.
Last month New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo worried whether massive quarantine was such a good idea.
Cuomo worries about massive lockdown
https://nypost.com/2020/03/26/cuomo-admits-that-quarantine-may-have-backfired-in-some-cases/
N.Y. Times: Preventive medicine expert backs 'targeted' approach
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html
PBS: Medical risk vs. economic pain
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/2-views-on-balancing-medical-risk-and-economic-pain
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