Poll numbers versus rally numbers
According to opinion polls, Donald Trump holds no lead in any battleground state.
RealClearPolitics gives the average of polls conducted in those states as follows:
In addition, the averages are based on different sets of polls, so the data are plentiful here, scant there.
Also, the leads Biden holds in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida are statistically insignificant and mean these races appear to be dead heats. As for North Carolina, I am hesitant to say the number is within the margin of error because it is a mean. But I would say that that race is probably quite close.
There is also a fair possibility that numerous Trump supporters won't tell strangers, including pollsters, who they are really planning to vote for.
But here is the kicker: Hardly anyone shows up at Biden's events. He's lucky if a few party professionals show up. At his first campaign stop in Pennsylvania, 30 people turned out. In Arizona, no one at all showed for a Biden-Harris event.
Meanwhile, Trump has no problem drawing thousands to his pep rallies.
If people won't go to hear Biden speak, are they likely to turn out to vote for him? Well, maybe campaign appearances don't count for much, and yet Biden seems to be making them anyway.
Strange days indeed!
RealClearPolitics gives the average of polls conducted in those states as follows:
Wisconsin: Biden ahead by 6.3 points.We must point out however that in several cases outlier polls give Joe Biden such a big edge that the average is probably off base.
Michigan: Biden ahead by 7.2.
Pennsylvania: Biden up by 5.6.
North Carolina: Biden up by 2.7.
Arizona: Biden up by 4.0.
Minnesota: Biden up by 6.6.
Georgia: Biden up by 1.2.
Florida: Biden up by 1.4.
In addition, the averages are based on different sets of polls, so the data are plentiful here, scant there.
Also, the leads Biden holds in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida are statistically insignificant and mean these races appear to be dead heats. As for North Carolina, I am hesitant to say the number is within the margin of error because it is a mean. But I would say that that race is probably quite close.
There is also a fair possibility that numerous Trump supporters won't tell strangers, including pollsters, who they are really planning to vote for.
But here is the kicker: Hardly anyone shows up at Biden's events. He's lucky if a few party professionals show up. At his first campaign stop in Pennsylvania, 30 people turned out. In Arizona, no one at all showed for a Biden-Harris event.
Meanwhile, Trump has no problem drawing thousands to his pep rallies.
If people won't go to hear Biden speak, are they likely to turn out to vote for him? Well, maybe campaign appearances don't count for much, and yet Biden seems to be making them anyway.
Strange days indeed!
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